Progressions, "Perfect" Blackjack and Other Ramblings on Gambling
GameMaster,
I have a question. In answer to a non-counting Blackjack player's question, in a recent advisor, you said, "since all the casinos will have a long term edge over you, there is no advantage in varying your bets."
I use a 50% progression---flat betting for two wins, then increase subsequent bets by 50% and back to the table minimum when I lose a bet. I know in the long run that I will lose. However, in a particular session, say I get really lucky and win twenty hands in a row at my normal $5 mimimum bet table. If I were flat betting I'd win $100. With the progression betting I'd win $6,453.
Looking at the game from a session standpoint, rather than the long run, wouldn't the basic strategy player be better off with some type of progession betting instead of the flat bet?
Best,
Mac
I've never really written a complete article about why progressions don't work and maybe I should. But let's look at them from a practical point of view before I get into all the mathematical mumbo-jumbo. If progressions worked, there wouldn't be any Blackjack games anywhere. Let's face it, progressions are easy to use and anyone can do it, so lots of people are and yet the casinos are still making a profit at Blackjack, so on a 'grand' level, they cannot be working. The corollary to this is the casinos paying 2 for 1 for a Blackjack. Why don't they? It would be easier for the dealers in that they wouldn't have to fuss with those half-dollar chips, etc. But if they did that, the average player would have nearly a 2% edge over the casino. So, you don't see any BJ games out there that pay 2 for 1 on a Blackjack. See my thinking here? If it's good for the casino, it will continue but if it's bad for the casino, it disappears. You can use a progression in any casino and it's because they don't work.
Now, to your specific question, what you say is true: If we consider them only from a short-term point of view, progressions can work. But what is "short-term"? If you mean playing 50 hands where there is a 20-hand winning streak, then I have to agree. But that's not how it works for most people. Few play 50 hands, win and then give up the game forever. On a more practical level, let's say we all play 200,000 hands in our lives. Since we both agree that the amount bet has no effect on whether or not we win or lose the hand, I think it's safe to say that the casino will end up with about a 1% edge over us. That basically means that we'll win 99,000 hands and lose 101,00 hands for a net loss of 2000 hands. The flat-bet player will lose 2000 of his bets. The progression player will also lose 2000 hands, and we don't know if some are minimum bets or top bets or something in between (remember that all progressions end with the loss of a large bet unless it's time to shuffle), but we do know that the average bet will be bigger than the minimum. So, the progression player will bet more and, even though s/he may capitalize on "streaks" like you describe, in the end it just comes out to them losing the same number of hands, but losing more $$$ in the process.
GameMaster,
I found this game (Cyberstud Poker) online and it looks interesting, but I suspect it is a real loser as far as advantage against the casino is concerned. Any insights? Is there a published strategy for this game? Or is the strategy not to play? Any info would be appreciated.
Regards
Al
I believe you are talking about Microgaming's version of Caribbean Stud Poker and it is a long-term loser. On our site, "The GameMaster's Casino Directory" (www.gamemasterlist.com), we've listed the many variations of this game that can be found on the 'Net, along with a simple strategy which cuts the casino advantage down to about 2.60%. Even the best strategy only gets it down to 2.50% or so.
GameMaster,
I find your lessons most valuable, however I've only been to Atlantic City one time and played the slots. Basically I don't plan on taking many trips to Atlantic City either. If I would do any thing I would play internet Black Jack with a starting roll of $100 to get my feet wet.
I would assume I should memorize the basic strategy flash cards in order to play. But I don't know if there are any sites that play a one deck game of Black Jack. Do you have any strategies for internet Black Jack or know of any one who does?
If you go to our site, The GameMaster's Arcade (www.gamemasterarcade.com) , select and click the button called "Blackjack Games" and on the next page select, game #2. This is a single deck game that you will want to try. When you go there, you'll also find the correct Basic Strategy for that game which you can print out. That's one of the nice things about Internet Blackjack; you don't have to memorize anything. Just print the strategy and set it next to your mouse.
If I started with a $100 bankroll what would you suggest for money management and minimum bets?
The only real choice you have is to play a $1 games and bet that amount only. Being realistic here, you're going to have to get lucky or just wait until you can build up your bankroll.
Do you know of any good internet casinos that offer good games of Black Jack?
Go to our other site, The GameMaster's Casino Directory (www.gamemasterlist.com) and you'll find most of the Blackjack games available on the Internet listed there. Also, we have a section there called "Gambling With The GameMaster" and in it I recommend specific casinos for you to consider.
Maybe if I learned your basic strategies and played a little on-line Black Jack and got comfortable with what I was doing, I might make more trips to Atlantic City. Any words of advice are greatly appreciated.
On the front page of GameMaster OnLine is a series called "Life on the Gambling Web" and one of the articles in there covers an e-mail 'conversation' with a reader who had questions similar to yours. I highly recommend that you read it when you can. And, if that's not enough, there's a series on theBlackjack Page of GameMaster Online called "The Internet Blackjack Report" which will also help you.
Now back to studying the basics.
That's what it's all about: the basics. Let me know if I can be of further help
GameMaster,
Is there a book or paper that calculates the maximum advantage that, using a computer that plays perfect blackjack, can be obtained in a multi-deck game?
Is that near 2% or more like 5%, 10%?
Thanks in advance.
Lepto
I am not aware of any such study on multi-deck games, but Peter Griffin calculated this for a single-deck game in his book, "The Theory of Blackjack". For a game dealt to the 10-card level (81% penetration), perfect play will produce an average edge of 2.74%. The key to this and to a multi-deck game is, first, the penetration and then the bet spread. Griffin's study was based upon a bet spread of 1 to 2 and the 2.74% average edge is a total of a 0.21% gain from perfect Insurance bets, 1.15% from other variations in Basic Strategy and 1.38% from betting variations.
Realistically, "perfect play" when flat-betting in a six-deck game with 50% penetration (like many games available on the 'Net) will cut the casino's edge to about 0.25% (assuming that the rules give the casino a 0.5% edge "off the top") so this must be overcome by the betting spread. If a player bets one unit in any negative count and, say, 50 units in any positive count, the average edge might be about 1.50%, but the swings in the bankroll would be breathtaking. A more realistic 1-16 spread will produce an average edge of about 1.10%. An additional gain is available to the player who leaves the game when the count goes minus. That can add 0.5% to the average edge. By the way, my calculations here are based upon empirical evidence, not mathematical calculation but I think they'll serve to make the point which is that it doesn't get much over 2% under the best of conditions when faced with shallow penetration.
GameMaster,
I've got a question: is it possible to card count against a blackjack video machine? Wouldn't that be pretty advantageous? No heat from the pit bosses. I just wonder whether the software would be able to detect a counter and start dealing bogus hands. I've also found that the machines have poor rules, such as DD only on 9, 10, or 11 and dealer must hit soft 17. Anyhow, hope you can answer these questions. The reason why I ask is because I just know that my personality is such that I would get really nervous just knowing that the eye in the sky is watching me, or the pit bosses might get suspicious. I guess what I'm saying is I have the brains to learn how to count, but I doubt I have the nerves for it. Everyone's different...
Vladimir
Yes, it would be advantageous to count the cards at video Blackjack machines and there's no way the software could tell if it was dealing to a counter. But the vast majority shuffle the cards after each hand that's played, so there's no way for counting to work. However, there has appeared on the scene a game called, I think, "Digital 21" which is a machine that deals into the deck. I've heard it's available in Las Vegas. Also consider the Internet casinos which offer some penetration. No one will be watching you there!
Hot Tip of the Month: Most Blackjack players never hit a hand of 12 against a dealer's up card of 2 and that's a mistake. By hitting, you reduce the overall loss of the hand to 25.3% from 29.2%. It may not seem like a lot, but this is a fairly common hand and it all adds up.
-the GameMaster
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